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Why Western Birth Rates Have Collapsed

What population and fertility trends in Nigeria say about the West.

6 min readMay 6, 2025
Photo by Vika Glitter from Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/man-and-woman-carrying-babies-while-sitting-on-chair-1648396/

Despite not having any kids, I’ve become intrigued lately by all the doomsdayers out there raising alarms about birthrates and replacement rates. Elon Musk, who has 14 children with five different women himself, talks about it almost every day on X. Recently, he retweeted a user who shared some shocking graphs:

Source: OurWorldinData

Then there’s this one:

Source: National Statistics Offices

Wow. That is what’s called a precipitous collapse. The West will be extinct before long at this rate.

Anecdotally, my grandmother had eight kids. My biological father had seven. My mother had four. I have two half-siblings who have two kids each. My youngest half-sibling has none, as do I. Only a few of my cousins have more than one child. I’ve witnessed in my time a severe narrowing in the number of kids couples have over the generations. Marriage rates have also gone down. The average age people marry has gone up. And the…

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Dean Brooks
Dean Brooks

Written by Dean Brooks

Novelist. I write about anything and I'm right about everything.

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